My investing style – avoid bad things!

In investing, I’ve always had some clarity about *what to avoid*. Can’t say that about *what to buy*. If a bunch of companies look good, selectively zeroing down is always difficult and has too many variables not in your control.

Future is always unknown and surprises come out of nowhere. Even in my own business, visibility beyond a period is non-existent. Experience has taught me to respect that.

When buying, there’s always confusion and self-doubt. It is exaggerated when other skilled people “seem” to have that ability which evades you. Experience, again, has taught me that they too are going through the same thoughts themselves.

After a while, it’s a leap of faith. You have a thesis and you buy based on that. It can turn out great, or fail. Being open about it and training yourself to average on *way up* and exiting early in case of mistakes has helped me quite a bit.

All said and done, I’ve realised I’m an average investor with a *good ability to avoid bad things* – and that is good enough to have an above average investing career. I avoid bad things and for the rest, I take help from good minds I know. Almost never do the “buy” research myself these days. Pay for those reports by talented people.

Fixed deposit options

My dad is 80. Not the most financially savvy person I know of.

Last year, when I took a look at my dad’s finances, I noticed deposits in small and cooperative banks.

Why? Because he’s treated like a person there. With higher automation (and hence, more DIY) and retirement of people he knew at the banks, places like SBI are uncomfortable. It has pushed him more into places like the co-op.

Also, the 1-2% higher interest rate is a good bait.

He doesn’t realise the risks:

  • a less reliable, less compliant bank
  • carrying most of his savings

This is for those who have money in such small banks. Not all are bad, not all are mismanaged. But banks are highly leveraged businesses that a few bad mistakes can cause a run on the bank. So, it is better to go with the conservative banks that are also large. Why go through all the pain for just a small incremental gain?

Personally, if I invest for less than 10% returns, I look first for safety – return of capital with absolutely lowest risk. A safe bank at 5% is any day better than a so-so bank offering 8%. Especially if that money is hard to earn back (esp retirees).

Personally, as of today, I’d keep FDs only in these banks – SBI and HDFC. If you still need to diversify, maybe Kotak and ICICI. That’s it.

As for making banking easier for senior citizens… I feel sorry for them. The best I could do for my dad was to enable internet banking and do it on his behalf. Every now and then, he sees that as loss of control over his money, but quickly gets over it. Until the day we squabble, at least 🙂.

EDIT: I am aware of post office schemes such as SCSS and POMIS. They don’t suit his needs – he needs a good place to park funds for liquidity. Should be available immediately when needed for exigencies. For monthly expenses, he uses his pension. The post office term deposit is an option too – but unless the online facilities are good enough, won’t use them. Also, there’s a limit of 15 lakhs on it as of today.

Walking away from a wrong table

Several times in life, I’ve sat at the wrong table and waited for things to get better. A wrong job, a bad investment, a bad industry… to list a few. Talk about table selection and I’ve made all mistakes one could!

2 years in a job I hated. 3 years with a significant investment I wasn’t sure about. 2 years in an industry that I knew would take me nowhere.

I waited.

Nothing really happened!

Continue reading

The ethics of money and business

Ever since 2005, I have really enjoyed studying businesses and have kept my money mostly in publicly listed stocks and since 2011, been interested in building one myself. At the same time, I love and seek inspiration from nature.

I’ve had trouble keeping them together because capitalism and its main cogs – business and finance, seem to be largely working against nature. I find it disturbing and hard to balance.

Several years ago, I owned ITC shares – a friend questioned how I could make money from smoking and tree-chopping (paper). I got out (though my reasons are ambiguous at best).

Continue reading

Never play the Russian roulette

Charlie Munger often says, “tell me where I’m going to die, so I will never go there”. Avoidance of terminal risk is of great importance to him (and to Warren Buffett).

That is a very important thing to follow in life.

A Russian roulette is one game that is simply not worth playing at any price, even though the odds are in your favor. (There is a 5/6th chance that you will survive and there is a 1/6th chance that you’ll get the bullet, if the chamber is reset every time.)

Source: Wikipedia
Image Source / credit: Wikipedia

Any game that can get you killed is just not worth it! Even if there is a good chance that you might survive and win a hefty prize.

Continue reading

True financial freedom

A friend and I were discussing money and financial freedom, amongst other things in life.

“How much is enough money to be financially free? How do you decide?” I asked my friend.

Is it a fixed number? The ability to not work for money and have enough of it to pay all your bills through your lifetime? Is it 30 times your annual expense? 50 times? Having a good part of it in inflation beating investments? Or having a business that has good free cashflow and longevity?

Continue reading

12 things I learned from Jorge Paulo Lemann

A few months ago, while reading Buffett’s annual letter, I came across 3G Capital and its principals, mainly Jorge Paulo Lemann, and got curious.

This article on him that made me more curious.

lemann

Now, Buffett is an astute dealmaker. And fantastic at picking partners in business – nearly all his partners are people with outstanding characteristics. Few examples are Charlie Munger, Tom Murphy, Mrs Blumkin, Albert Ueltschi and Ajit Jain. Even the lesser known people like Ted Weschler and Todd Combs are ones I’ve come to admire a lot.

Continue reading

A decade of investing

I just realized its been exactly 10 years to the day since I first entered the stock market. Being risk averse and skeptical, I equated stock market to casinos and thought I’d never touch it with a long pole. Little did I know that a large part of my own life would be devoted to studying and investing in that very same treacherous market.

The date was May 17, 2004. A senior colleague looked very pale and I came to know that he had lost a lot of money that day in the crash. I was perplexed as to why people invested in risky things such as the stock market and vowed that I would do no such stupid thing.

Continue reading